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South Africa is Africa’s most industrialised economy, offering significant scale for gas penetration across power, industry, and transport. While the country faces an approaching gas supply cliff due to declining imports from Mozambique, major reforms are underway.
The 2024 Gas Master Plan charts a path for expanded gas use, backed by upcoming LNG import terminals and key infrastructure upgrades. With demand rising and coal retirements looming, gas is set to play a pivotal role in securing energy resilience and driving a lower-carbon industrial future.
GDP (2023)
Proven Gas Reserves
Gas Production
Population (2023)
Population in 2050
South Africa’s depleting gas reserves underscore its rising dependence on imports and the urgent need to secure new supply alternatives.
For decades, South Africa has relied heavily on natural gas imported from Mozambique’s Pande and Temane fields via the 865 km ROMPCO pipeline. Gas arriving at Secunda feeds into Sasol’s distribution network, supplying Gauteng’s industrial base, and into Transnet’s pipeline system linking to Richards Bay and Durban.
But this supply is now under threat. Sasol announced it will cease third-party gas sales by June 2026, reserving declining volumes for internal use. With recoverable reserves at Pande and Temane falling to 708 PJ as of 2023, this decision is set to leave industrial users exposed to a significant supply shortfall.
This looming crisis presents a catalyst for new supply development. Onshore, Renergen’s Virginia Gas Project in the Free State is scaling up operations. Phase 1 delivers 2,560 MMBtu/day of LNG and 75 mcf/day of helium, while Phase 2 will add hundreds of new wells and boost production to 32,600 MMBtu/day. In Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal, Kinetiko Energy is progressing a large-scale exploration campaign targeting near-surface sandstone gas deposits that could deliver regional supply.
Offshore, South Africa holds significant proven and prospective gas resources. In 2024, TotalEnergies and QatarEnergy withdrew from Block 11B/12B in the Outeniqua Basin, citing commercial hurdles. However, the block contains an estimated 1 billion boe and remains viable for new entrants under revised fiscal or offtake terms.
Meanwhile, multi-well exploration campaigns are planned in the Orange Basin by Shell and TotalEnergies, just south of Namibia’s breakthrough discoveries. If successful, these could reshape South Africa’s offshore production outlook and establish a longer-term gas backbone.
While supply diversification is critical, infrastructure will determine how quickly gas reaches the market. South Africa is currently ramping up investments to reshape its gas transmission and import capacity.
The ROMPCO pipeline, connecting Mozambique to Secunda, remains a vital asset. It links to Sasol’s network in Gauteng and to Transnet’s pipeline grid, enabling distribution to Richards Bay and Durban. However, with Pande and Temane reserves declining, new supply routes are urgently needed.
The most advanced near-term project is the Matola LNG Import Terminal near Maputo—a joint venture between TotalEnergies, Gigajoule, and Mozambican authorities. With a 2.5 MTPA FSRU and direct integration into ROMPCO, the terminal is expected to deliver first gas in 2027, pending FID in 2024.
Domestically, the Zululand Energy Terminal (ZET) in Richards Bay—a partnership between Transnet Pipelines, Vopak, and TNPA—is under preparation. The terminal will receive LNG and regasify it for inland distribution. The existing Lilly Pipeline, which currently carries methane-rich gas imported from Mozambique, will be repurposed to transport regasified LNG from Richards Bay to the interior.
In the Eastern Cape, a second South African LNG terminal is planned at Coega, positioned to serve industrial users and power developers in the region. Together with ZET and the cross-border Matola terminal, these projects will anchor the country’s shift to a more diversified, import-enabled gas system.
As coal plants retire and renewable penetration grows, gas is expected to play a balancing role in South Africa’s energy transition—supporting grid stability, flexible generation, and industrial decarbonisation.
The 2024 Gas Master Plan outlines a national vision to position gas as a key transitional fuel. It anticipates substantial growth in gas demand driven by the power sector, industrial processes, and potential conversion of coal assets. Planned interventions include:
To support these efforts, the Master Plan considers multiple demand scenarios, with gas-to-power capacity needs ranging from 2 GW (low case) to 16.6 GW (high case) by 2030.
According to external estimates, South Africa could meet up to 87% of its gas demand through LNG imports by 2050—but only if no new domestic discoveries or upstream developments are realised. To avoid such high dependence on global markets, the Master Plan emphasises the need for a diversified supply mix, including regional imports and accelerated local exploration.
South Africa is entering a pivotal phase in its energy transition. The decline of legacy gas imports from Mozambique presents immediate challenges, but also opens the door for a more resilient, diversified gas economy—one anchored in LNG, domestic production, and regional trade. While the short-term outlook hinges on successful commissioning of LNG terminals and infrastructure upgrades, the medium- to long-term future depends on unlocking domestic onshore and offshore potential and securing stable partnerships for regional integration. With the 2024 Gas Master Plan providing initial direction, and major infrastructure projects now in motion, South Africa has the opportunity to transform gas from a shrinking legacy sector into a growth engine for reindustrialisation, power reliability, and economic transformation.
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